What’s Driving the Real Estate Shift in Baja’s Pacific Side in 2025
The Pacific side of Baja California Sur, located just an hour north of Cabo San Lucas, is quickly becoming one of the region’s most dynamic real estate markets. This area stretches from the settlement of Elias Calles in the south to Todos Santos in the north and includes Cerritos and Pescadero.
Following several years of rapid growth following the pandemic, the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025) marks a transition in the market. We are moving from swift expansion during and immediately after COVID to a more stable and measured phase.
Demand remains strong, however, driven by international buyers seeking lifestyle investments. In turn, local development trends focus on long-term livability and quality. This article will examine data from our MLS comparing the performance of residential properties and land sales between the first quarters of 2025 and 2024.
The data reveals that the Pacific side is maturing. There are more listings, a slight decrease in sales, and rising median prices, particularly in the mid-to-upper tiers. Meanwhile, land and select luxury properties continue to sell, reflecting ongoing buyer confidence despite a more cautious approach to purchasing.
It’s important to note a caveat regarding the data. The MLS is a user-generated database, and inaccuracies in the data are common. Additionally, several transactions occur off-market and are not registered in the MLS. Nevertheless, the MLS provides a representative overview of the current state of the market.
Property Listings Surge While Prices Rise on Baja’s Pacific Side
Data from Q1 2025 indicates a gradually recalibrating market. New residential listings, including houses and condos, increased by 18% compared to Q1 2024. This reflects a continued willingness among owners and developers to bring properties to market.
However, closed sales declined modestly by 13.6%, and the total sales volume decreased by 7.2%. This contraction suggests that buyers are becoming more selective in their purchasing decisions.
Despite this moderation in sales activity, the median sold price continued to rise. It climbed from US$462,163 in Q1 2024 to US$500,000 in Q1 2025 — an increase of 8.2%. This upward pressure on prices, even with a decrease in transaction volume, indicates sustained demand for well-positioned properties, particularly in the mid-to-upper market segment.
We observed another significant shift in the speed of sales. Properties that sold did so much faster. The average days on the market dropped from 258 days to just 90 days year-over-year. This trend suggests that correctly priced and well-located homes can still attract buyers efficiently, even in a more balanced market environment than the highly competitive seller’s market experienced during and after the pandemic.
Land Sales Reveal Long-Term Confidence in Cerritos, Todos Santos, and Pescadero
The land market on the Pacific side offers additional insight into buyer sentiment during Q1 2025.
New land listings increased by 23.3% compared to the same period last year, while closed sales rose by 15.4%.
Although total sold volume declined slightly by 13.2%, settling at US$5,496,783, the median land sale price jumped from US$70,000 to $125,000. That is a striking 78.6% year-over-year increase.
This surge in median pricing, coupled with stable transaction activity, suggests that buyers are not merely speculating on low-cost lots. Instead, there appears to be a growing appetite for higher-quality parcels. End users are planning future home construction, and investors are anticipating continued regional growth.
Together, these indicators point to a market where long-term confidence remains intact. Rather than retreating from land purchases amid broader global uncertainty, buyers selectively acquire better-positioned assets.
Luxury Real Estate Over US$750K: Signs of Movement, But Still a Niche Market
The luxury segment, defined here as residential properties priced at US$750,000 and above, showed mixed signals in Q1 2025.
Due to the limited sample size, which includes only a few recorded transactions each quarter every year, caution is advised when interpreting these figures. They provide insights into the high-end market rather than reflect general trends.
New listings in this bracket increased by 26% compared to the previous year, rising from 31 to 39.
Closed sales rose from 3 to 5 transactions, a modest numerical increase, but it reflects an active, if still emerging, high-end buyer pool.
At the same time, the total sold volume in the US$750,000-plus category declined by 15.2%, and the median sold price fell from US$2 million to US$1.25 million.
The average number of days on the market for sold luxury listings increased significantly from 249 to 532 days. This extended timeline suggests that while there are still buyers in the luxury market, they are negotiating more cautiously and taking longer to make decisions. This trend aligns with broader global patterns in luxury real estate markets.
Why Beachfront Properties on the Pacific Side Remain a Scarce and Enduring Asset
Beachfront properties on Baja’s Pacific side occupy a unique position. Unlike inland properties, which can expand with development and permitting, true beachfront parcels are permanently limited by geography. This scarcity gives beachfront properties a resilience that often protects them from broader market fluctuations.
Due to this limited supply, beachfront properties command a premium. On average, they sell for 76% more than their non-waterfront counterparts. Restricted availability and the persistent demand for ocean access and views drive this differential. These properties are desirable to high-net-worth individuals, who view them as lifestyle choices and investment opportunities.
Current macroeconomic conditions further enhance their appeal. Buyers increasingly regard tangible assets, such as beachfront homes, as hedges against inflation and vehicles for diversification, especially during periods of economic and political volatility.
However, cold reason alone does not capture the allure of these properties. For many international buyers, post-pandemic priorities have shifted toward wellness, open space, and the ability to live or work in inspiring environments. In this context, beachfront homes offer not just scarcity but also aspiration. “There are many people in the U.S. who want to come down… not just to vacation, but to live,” points out a local broker with expertise in the Pacific side region.
The Cove Residences: A Limited Beachfront Offering in Cerritos
Amid the limited availability of beachfront properties, finding new, thoughtfully designed homes directly on the sand is becoming increasingly rare.
The Cove Residences, a collection of just four fully-furnished luxury beachfront condominiums in Cerritos, perfectly illustrates this scarcity.
The developers behind this project are the same team responsible for The Cove at Cerritos. It is a sold-out development located right next to The Cove Residences, which has provided significant equity and substantial rental income for its owners.
With only three residences still available, The Cove Residences stands out as a unique option in a market where beachfront offerings are limited and highly sought after.
A Market for Strategic Buyers: What the Data Signals for 2025
Q1 2025 suggests that the Pacific side of Baja California Sur is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to one of measured, strategic growth.
Buyers today act with greater selectivity. Sellers adapt to a market that rewards well-located, well-priced properties rather than broad speculation.
Land activity, median price resilience, and the continued movement of select high-end properties all point to a market where long-term confidence remains strong, even amid shifting global conditions.
At the same time, beachfront properties continue to hold a unique place. They are driven less by short-term cycles and more by their intrinsic scarcity.
For thoughtful buyers evaluating opportunities along the Pacific side, the current environment offers a blend of caution and possibility — a chance to engage with a maturing market without losing its essential appeal.
